Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$2.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes taking office, requiring the individual to be officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister following the next parliamentary election. Interim or caretaker prime ministers are explicitly excluded from qualifying. In the event of early elections, the trigger remains the individual sworn in after that vote, and a definitive cutoff date is set for December 31, 2027, resolving the market to Other if no one takes office by then. While resolution can rely on a consensus of credible reporting if necessary, official announcements from the Government of Israel serve as the primary source.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Amir Ohana will become the next Prime Minister of Israel by being officially appointed and sworn in after the next parliamentary election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Amir Ohana is officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election, or following an early election if called. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister does not count toward resolution. The market resolves to No if another individual is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister under these conditions. The market resolves to Other if no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from the Government of Israel decides the outcome, with a consensus of credible reporting serving as an alternative.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel.
- Resolution cutoff date: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for a Prime Minister to be sworn in before the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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