Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$1.8M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules require a prime minister to be formally appointed and sworn in following an election (either the scheduled 2026 election or an early election), explicitly excluding interim or caretaker prime ministers. If a leadership change occurs within the current Knesset without an election taking place, it would not trigger resolution under these specific rules. Resolution relies primarily on official Israeli government announcements, with secondary reliance on consensus reporting, and includes a clear cutoff date of December 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Nir Barkat will become the next Prime Minister of Israel following the next parliamentary election. Interim or caretaker appointments do not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Nir Barkat is officially appointed and formally sworn in as the Prime Minister of Israel following the next parliamentary election, whether held on the scheduled date or called early. The market resolves to No if another individual is officially appointed and sworn in following that election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count toward resolution. The market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from the Government of Israel serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Scheduled parliamentary election: — Date legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel.
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET after which the market resolves to Other if no qualifying PM is sworn in.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.