Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$1M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title asks about the next prime minister, but the rules specifically tie resolution to the individual sworn in following the next parliamentary election, whether held on schedule in 2026 or called early. This creates potential tension if a new prime minister were to take office through a coalition reshuffle or constructive vote of no confidence without a new election occurring. Additionally, interim or caretaker prime ministers are explicitly excluded from triggering resolution. Official Israeli government announcements serve as the primary source, with credible reporting as a secondary check, which provides an objective standard since swearing-in ceremonies are public official events. If no qualifying prime minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, the market defaults to Other.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israel Katz will be the next officially appointed and sworn-in Prime Minister of Israel following the next parliamentary election. Interim or caretaker prime ministers are excluded from triggering resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Israel Katz is the next individual officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election or an early election. The market resolves No if another individual is officially appointed and sworn in following that election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count toward resolution. The market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Scheduled Israeli legislative election: — Elections are scheduled to be held on this date unless called early.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by this time.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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