Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$1.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution requires an individual to be officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the next parliamentary election, whether held on schedule in 2026 or called early. Interim or caretaker prime ministers are explicitly excluded from qualifying. A definitive cutoff date of December 31, 2027, is established if no government is formed and sworn in by then. Official Israeli government publications serve as the primary resolution source, with credible reporting as an alternative, leaving minimal room for subjective dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Yoaz Hendel will be officially appointed and sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Israel following the scheduled 2026 parliamentary election or an early election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Yoaz Hendel is officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 legislative election or an earlier election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count. The market resolves to No if another individual is sworn in as Prime Minister following that election. The market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution will be determined using official information from the Government of Israel, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- Scheduled Israeli legislative election: — Date of the scheduled parliamentary election in Israel.
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by which a Prime Minister must be sworn in before the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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