Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$2.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes taking office, requiring the individual to be officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister following the next parliamentary election. Interim or caretaker leaders are explicitly excluded, and a firm long-stop date of December 31, 2027 is provided. Official records from the Government of Israel serve as the primary source, making the criteria straightforward and unambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ayelet Shaked will become the next officially appointed and sworn-in Prime Minister of Israel following the next parliamentary election, excluding any interim or caretaker roles.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Ayelet Shaked is officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election or an early election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count. The market resolves No if a different individual is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister following that election. The market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from the Government of Israel serves as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Scheduled date for legislative elections in Israel
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by this time
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
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