Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$2.2M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question asks if the named candidate will be the next Prime Minister, but the rules strictly require the individual to be officially appointed and sworn in following an election (either the scheduled 2026 parliamentary election or an early election). A mid-term change in government or coalition rotation occurring without an election is not explicitly accounted for under these terms. Additionally, interim or caretaker appointments are excluded, and if no government is sworn in by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to an 'Other' outcome. Official government records serve as the primary resolution source, backed by reporting consensus.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Moshe Feiglin will become the next Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 legislative elections or an earlier election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Moshe Feiglin is officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election, or an earlier election if called early. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count toward resolution. The market resolves No if another individual is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister under these conditions. The market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from the Government of Israel decides the market, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Scheduled legislative elections: — Date of scheduled parliamentary elections in Israel unless called early.
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for a Prime Minister to be sworn in before the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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