Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$2M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market question asks who the next Prime Minister will be, but the rules restrict resolution strictly to the individual sworn in following a parliamentary election. If a new Prime Minister takes office mid-term through a government reshuffle or coalition change without a national election being called, the rules do not clearly resolve on that event. Additionally, the rules specify resolving to 'Other' if no one is sworn in by December 31, 2027, which operates unusually for a single-candidate question. Official swearing-in records from the Israeli government serve as the benchmark, with interim and caretaker leaders explicitly excluded.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Yariv Levin will be the next officially appointed and sworn-in Prime Minister of Israel following the next parliamentary election. Interim or caretaker appointments do not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Yariv Levin is officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the scheduled 2026 parliamentary election or an earlier election. The market resolves to No if a different individual is formally sworn in as Prime Minister following that election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count for resolution. The market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from the Government of Israel decides the outcome, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Scheduled parliamentary election: — Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled for this date unless held early.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.