Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$2.4M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title asks who will be the next Prime Minister, but the rules specifically require the individual to be appointed and sworn in following a parliamentary election. If a new Prime Minister takes office through a coalition reshuffle or succession within the current Knesset without an election taking place, the rules do not clearly address whether that individual counts or if resolution must wait for the next formal election. Additionally, interim or caretaker Prime Ministers are explicitly excluded from triggering resolution. The outcome relies on official records from the Government of Israel with credible media as a backup, and has a clear backstop date of December 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gideon Sa’ar will be the next individual officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the next parliamentary election, excluding any interim or caretaker appointments.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Gideon Sa’ar is officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election or an early election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual is sworn in under these terms. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Scheduled legislative election: — Date of the scheduled Israeli parliamentary election.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by this time.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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