Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$2.6M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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While the title asks who will be the next Prime Minister, the rules explicitly tie resolution to the individual sworn in after the 2026 parliamentary election or an early election. This means a leadership change occurring mid-term without a general election does not cleanly trigger resolution under the text. Additionally, interim or caretaker appointments are explicitly excluded and will not resolve the market. Official government records serve as the primary source, with reporting consensus as a backup, and an absolute cutoff date of December 31, 2027 is specified.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Yair Golan will be the next individual officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the next parliamentary election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Yair Golan is officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 legislative election, or following an early election if one is called. The market resolves to No if a different individual is sworn in as Prime Minister. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count toward resolution. The market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is formally sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Scheduled legislative election: — Date elections are scheduled to be held in Israel
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by this time
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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