Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$3.6M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question asks if the subject will be the next Prime Minister, but the rules specifically require the individual to be sworn in following the 2026 parliamentary election or an early election. This means a mid-term change of Prime Minister without an election may not trigger resolution. Additionally, caretaker and interim appointments are explicitly excluded. Resolution relies on official Israeli government information with a fallback to credible media consensus, and a definitive timeout date of December 31, 2027 resolves the market to Other if no one is sworn in following an election by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Yossi Cohen will become the next officially appointed and sworn-in Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election or an early election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Yossi Cohen is officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election or an early election, with interim or caretaker Prime Ministers excluded. The market resolves to No if another individual is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister following the election. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided using official information from the Government of Israel, with a consensus of credible reporting used as an alternative.
Key dates
- Scheduled parliamentary elections: — Date of scheduled legislative elections in Israel.
- Resolution cutoff: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET after which the market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister has been sworn in.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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