Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$2.3M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question asks who will be the next Prime Minister, but the rules impose a critical restriction: the individual must be sworn in specifically following a general parliamentary election. If a new government forms and a new Prime Minister takes office within the current parliament without calling an election, that succession does not trigger resolution. Additionally, interim or caretaker appointments are excluded. The market includes a long backstop deadline of December 31, 2027, resolving to an alternative outcome if government formation stalls. Resolution relies on official Israeli government records with credible reporting as a secondary source.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Benny Gantz will be the next individual officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the next parliamentary election, excluding interim or caretaker roles.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Benny Gantz is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 legislative election, or following an early election if one is called sooner. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count toward resolution. The market resolves to No if a different individual is sworn in as Prime Minister after the election. The market resolves to Other if no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is official information from the Government of Israel, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- Scheduled legislative election: — Israeli legislative elections are scheduled to be held.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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