Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$1.9M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title asks broadly who the next Prime Minister will be, but the rules restrict resolution specifically to the person sworn in after the 2026 parliamentary election or an early election. This means a mid-term government replacement without an election would not trigger resolution. Additionally, caretaker and interim appointments are explicitly excluded, requiring a formal swearing-in of a permanent government. Official Israeli government announcements serve as the primary source, which makes the factual occurrence straightforward to confirm, though coalition formation can extend resolution timing toward the December 31, 2027 timeout.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Yair Lapid will be the next individual officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the next parliamentary election, whether held on schedule in 2026 or called early.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Yair Lapid is officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election or an early election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count. The market resolves to No if another individual is officially appointed and sworn in following that election. The market resolves to Other if no eligible Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided using official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Scheduled date for Israeli legislative elections.
- Resolution cutoff date: — Market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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