Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the start and end timestamps in Eastern Time, the account being monitored, and what types of posts count (main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts, excluding standard replies and community reposts).
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the start and end timestamps in Eastern Time, the account being monitored, and what types of posts count (main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts, excluding standard replies and community reposts). An automated, dedicated tracking tool serves as the primary resolution source with data export capabilities, backed up by X directly if technical issues arise. Specific edge cases like deleted posts and main-feed replies are explicitly defined.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 10 12:00 PM ET to November 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market explained
This market measures whether Elon Musk will post between 60 and 79 qualifying posts on X within a specified one-week window in November 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk makes between 60 and 79 qualifying posts on X from November 10, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET to November 17, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Qualifying posts include main feed posts, quote posts, reposts, and replies that appear on the main feed. Deleted posts count if captured by the tracker within approximately 5 minutes. Standard replies and community reposts not captured by the tracker do not count. The market resolves to No if the total post count falls outside the 60-79 range. Resolution is determined by the Post Counter on the Polymarket X tracker, with X itself serving as a secondary source if the tracker fails.
Resolution source
Polymarket X Tracker (xtracker.polymarket.com), with X as a secondary source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·