Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the measurement window down to the exact minute and time zone.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the measurement window down to the exact minute and time zone. An automated tracker URL serves as the primary resolution source, with raw data exportable for verification. The counting methodology is explicitly detailed: main feed posts, quotes, and reposts count, while standard replies and uncaptured community reposts do not. The conditions regarding deleted posts captured within approximately five minutes and the fallback to the platform directly if the tracker fails provide unambiguous boundaries for resolution.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 10 12:00 PM ET to November 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market explained
This market measures whether Elon Musk's total post count on X falls between 40 and 59 posts within a specific one-week window in November 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) posts between 40 and 59 times on X during the tracking period. Main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count toward the total. Main feed replies count, but regular replies do not. Deleted posts count if captured by the tracker (around 5 minutes), whereas community reposts not captured by the tracker do not count. The market resolves to No if the total number of eligible posts is outside the 40 to 59 range. The primary resolution source is the Post Counter figure at xtracker.polymarket.com. If the tracker fails to update correctly, X itself may serve as a secondary source.
Resolution source
Polymarket X Post Tracker with X as a secondary source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·