Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?
Current price
3.2¢
Implied probability 3.2%
$181.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves to Yes if Fannie Mae completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and allows early resolution once that happens. The definition of an IPO as the first public stock sale on a recognized exchange is clear and straightforward. The main point to watch is that resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single specific regulatory registry, though an IPO of this scale would be universally reported and leave little room for ambiguity. Additionally, corporate restructuring such as a merger, acquisition, or dissolution before an IPO explicitly results in a No resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Fannie Mae will complete an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Fannie Mae completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO)—defined as the first sale of stock by the company to the public on any recognized stock exchange—by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve early if this occurs. The market resolves to No if the IPO does not take place by the deadline, or if the company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before resolution. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome, based on official company announcements or credible news sources.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for Fannie Mae to complete an IPO
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, including official company announcements or credible news sources
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