ByteDance IPO before 2027?
Current price
2.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.35%
$32.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market establishes a clear condition for resolution, requiring ByteDance to complete an initial public offering on a recognized stock exchange before the end of 2026. The market will resolve early if the IPO takes place before the deadline. While the rules rely on a consensus of credible reporting or official announcements rather than a single specific stock exchange registry, an IPO of this scale is a high-profile event with unambiguous public documentation. Specific handling is included for mergers, acquisitions, or corporate dissolution, all of which definitively resolve the market to No.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether ByteDance completes an Initial Public Offering on any recognized stock exchange before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if ByteDance completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The IPO must be the first sale of stock by the company to the public on a recognized stock exchange. The market resolves early to Yes as soon as this occurs. The market resolves to No if ByteDance merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before resolution, or if it does not complete an IPO by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting, along with official company announcements, determines the outcome.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for ByteDance to complete an IPO
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting and official company announcements
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