OpenAI IPO before 2027?
Current price
2.85¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.85%
$602.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes an initial public offering, specifying a completion deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET on a recognized stock exchange. The market will resolve early once the offering takes place, and explicitly dictates a negative resolution if the company is acquired, merges, or dissolves beforehand. No specific registry or exchange feed is designated as the sole decider, leaving verification to a consensus of credible reporting and company announcements. However, because a major public listing is a prominent, well-documented event, the risk of unexpected resolution outcomes remains minimal.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) before the end of 2026. Mergers or acquisitions before an IPO explicitly trigger a No resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering—defined as the first sale of stock to the public on any recognized stock exchange—by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve early if the IPO takes place before that deadline. The market resolves to No if OpenAI does not complete an IPO by the deadline, or if the company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before resolving. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting based on official company announcements or credible news sources.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves early if an IPO occurs before this deadline.
Resolution source
Official company announcements or credible news sources
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