Will 215-219 House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on official roll call records from the Clerk of the US House of Representatives for the first legislative day a recorded floor vote on articles of impeachment occurs.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on official roll call records from the Clerk of the US House of Representatives for the first legislative day a recorded floor vote on articles of impeachment occurs. Clear boundaries distinguish qualifying impeachment votes from procedural motions like motions to table or refer. If multiple impeachment votes occur on that initial day, the vote with the highest affirmative count governs, and if no qualifying vote takes place before December 31, 2026, the market resolves to a designated non-vote outcome.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of members of the US House of Representatives who vote in favor of impeaching United States Secretary of War (also referred to as the Secretary of Defense) Pete Hegseth on the legislative day of the first House floor vote on articles of impeachment against him held between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple floor votes on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth are held on the first legislative day on which such a floor vote is held, this market will resolve based on the vote that receives the highest number of votes in favor. Votes held on any later legislative day will not be considered. A floor vote on articles of impeachment is a recorded vote of the full House on the adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth or of one or more articles of impeachment against him. Procedural votes, including but not limited to votes on motions to table, motions to refer or commit, motions on the previous question, and votes on rules governing debate, will not count, even if the result of such a vote prevents a floor vote on articles of impeachment from being held. The outcome of the vote (whether or not the articles are adopted) does not affect resolution; only the number of votes in favor of impeachment is considered. If no floor vote on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No vote". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether between 215 and 219 US House members vote in favor of impeaching Pete Hegseth during the first eligible legislative day of floor votes before the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if between 215 and 219 members of the US House of Representatives vote in favor of impeaching Pete Hegseth on the first legislative day that a full House floor vote on impeachment articles occurs. If multiple floor votes happen on that first day, the vote with the highest number of votes in favor is used. The market resolves to No if a qualifying vote occurs on that day but the number of votes in favor is outside the 215-219 range. The market resolves to "No vote" if no floor vote on articles of impeachment occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Procedural votes do not count. The outcome of whether articles pass does not affect resolution. Resolution is determined by official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·