How many U.S. reps vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
4 live outcomes · highest priced: <215 at 2% · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $51.3K total volume
About this event
This event tracks how many U.S. House representatives vote in favor of impeaching Secretary of War Pete Hegseth by December 31, 2026. Its markets measure different ranges for the number of 'Yes' votes cast on the first legislative day a floor vote on impeachment articles occurs.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as mutually exclusive numerical brackets representing the count of House members voting in favor of impeachment. At most one market can resolve Yes based on the final vote count, or all will resolve No if no qualifying floor vote occurs (which resolves the event to 'No vote').
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if the number of House members voting in favor of impeaching Pete Hegseth falls within its specified bracket on the first legislative day a recorded full House floor vote on impeachment articles is held before the deadline. If multiple qualifying votes happen on that first day, resolution uses the vote with the highest number of votes in favor. Votes on later days and procedural votes do not count. If no qualifying floor vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'No vote'.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <215 | 2% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 240+ | <1% | — | Low | Med | |
| 220-224 | <1% | — | Low | Med | |
| 215-219 | <1% | — | Low | Low | |
| 225-229 | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| 230-234 | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| 235-239 | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| No vote | — | — | Not rated | — |