Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?
Current price
2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2%
$383.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules define the measurement time precisely as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, and provide a clear longstop date of December 31, 2026. However, the price source is designated only as the most liquid price source available rather than a named exchange, aggregator, or price index, leaving discretion to the resolver in selecting the venue. Additionally, the rules do not specify how or from where the total token supply will be verified to calculate the fully diluted valuation, which creates potential uncertainty if multiple interpretations of maximum versus total supply exist at launch.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of a Metamask token exceeds $4 billion one day after its launch, with a specific definition for 'one day after launch' and conditions for what constitutes a launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Metamask's token is greater than $4 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. For a launch to be considered valid, the token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves No if the FDV is not greater than $4 billion at the specified time. The market also resolves No if Metamask does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Market close if no token launch: — If Metamask does not launch a token by this date and time, the market resolves to No.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
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