Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Last captured price
3.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.5%
$428.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules define the evaluation point precisely as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch and include a clear long-term expiration date resolving to No if no token launches by late 2026. However, the resolution source is described only as the most liquid price source available rather than naming a specific price aggregator or exchange, which leaves room for interpretation in selecting the exact price venue. Additionally, calculating Fully Diluted Valuation requires establishing the token's total maximum supply at that exact timestamp, which can lead to disputes if initial tokenomics disclosures vary across tracking platforms.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the token of Metamask reaches a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) above $2 billion exactly one calendar day after its public launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than $2B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the valuation does not exceed $2B at that specified time. The market also resolves to No if Metamask does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The evaluation relies on the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — Latest time for a token launch before the market automatically resolves to No
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
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