US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?
Outcome
Yes
Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.
Yes price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The title refers casually to an effective ceasefire continuing, but the actual resolution mechanics strictly test a one-sided condition: whether the United States conducts a qualifying strike directly impacting Iranian territory. Iranian attacks on US forces or allies do not trigger a 'No' resolution. The rules provide an extensive list of weapon exclusions (such as artillery, naval gunfire, FPV drones, and ground incursions) and require actual impact rather than intercepted debris. Source discretion is high because resolution relies on aggregating official military statements and a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for subjective interpretation regarding attribution and impact verification if an incident is disputed or covert.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether an effective ceasefire between the US and Iran holds through November 5, 2026, determined by the absence of specific qualifying US direct strikes on Iranian terrestrial territory.
How it resolves
The market resolves to No if the United States executes a qualifying military action that directly impacts Iran between market creation and November 5, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. A qualifying action is an air strike (including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones) or a surface-to-surface missile strike (including cruise/ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones) impacting terrestrial Iran or internal waters. Intercepted munitions, debris, ground incursions, artillery, naval gunfire, cyber operations, minor FPV/loitering strikes, and strikes on maritime territory or airspace do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to Yes. Resolution is determined by official US/Iranian government and military information and a consensus of credible reporting. The market remains open until three calendar days after the specified date unless already established.
Key dates
- Effective ceasefire deadline: — 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time
- Adjudication cutoff date: — 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the third calendar date following the specified date
Resolution source
Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Unless a qualifying military action has already been established by a consensus of information available from the resolution sources, this market will remain open until 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the third calendar date following the specified date. If multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a potentially-qualifying incident at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the third calendar date following the specified date, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.