US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?

This event tracks whether an effective ceasefire between the United States and Iran holds through various specified dates in 2026, measured by the absence of qualifying US military actions directly impacting Iranian territory.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of a timeline of individual cutoff dates. Multiple markets can resolve Yes if no qualifying military action occurs across several periods; however, if a qualifying strike occurs before an earlier date, all subsequent markets covering that timeframe will resolve No.

How it resolves

Each market resolves to No if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the specified date. Otherwise, it resolves to Yes. A qualifying action is an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran's terrestrial territory or internal waters. Intercepted munitions, debris, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval/artillery fire, minor strikes, and unexecuted threats do not qualify. Determination relies on official government/military information from the US and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Key dates

• November 5 Cutoff: Nov 5, 2026 — Deadline at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time for the November 5, 2026 market.
• November 6 Cutoff: Nov 6, 2026 — Deadline at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time for the November 6, 2026 market.

Resolution source

Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 5 Nov 2026, 01:29 UTC