Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Last captured price
1.9¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.9%
$343.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the evaluation timestamp as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, as well as a definitive long-term expiration date of December 31, 2026, resolving to No if no token launches. However, the price data relies on 'the most liquid price source available' without specifying how liquidity is measured or which exchange or aggregator takes precedence. Determining the token's fully diluted valuation requires establishing total supply alongside price, which can vary across platforms during early trading periods.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of a Metamask token exceeds $3 billion one day after its public launch. The market has a specific definition for what constitutes a launch and a deadline for the token's release.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Metamask's token is greater than $3 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. For a launch to count, the token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves No if the FDV is not greater than $3 billion at the specified time. The market also resolves No if Metamask does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The most liquid price source available will be used to determine the FDV.
Key dates
- Market close if no token launch: — If Metamask does not launch a token by this date and time, the market resolves No.
Resolution source
the most liquid price source available
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