Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves on the number of individuals who purchase a Gold Card or participate in a qualifying pathway program in 2026.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves on the number of individuals who purchase a Gold Card or participate in a qualifying pathway program in 2026. The primary source is official data released by the Trump administration, but if official numbers are not published by December 31, resolution falls back to a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for interpretation. Additionally, the definition extends beyond explicitly named Gold Cards to any new Trump administration program offering citizenship, work permits, or residency for payment or investment created after February 26, 2025, which may require subjective judgment over what qualifies. A tie-break rule is included to resolve boundary values to the higher bracket.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether between 5,000 and 10,000 individuals purchase a Trump administration "Gold Card" (or qualifying citizenship/residency pathway program) during calendar year 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the total number of individuals purchasing a Gold Card between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET falls within the 5,000 to 10,000 range. Qualifying individuals include anyone participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration that is referred to as a Gold Card or offers a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or legal residency in exchange for payments or investment. If a reported value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. The market resolves No if the final qualifying count falls outside this bracket. Resolution is decided by official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number by December 31 at 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible reporting will decide.
Resolution source
Official information from the Trump Administration, or a consensus of credible reporting if not published by the deadline
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·