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PoliticsCloses · in 17 days$66.2K volumePart of: Who will Trump speak to by November 30? →

Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron by November 30?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market clearly defines what qualifies as speaking, covering verbal interactions in person, by phone, or by video.

Read the full assessment

This market clearly defines what qualifies as speaking, covering verbal interactions in person, by phone, or by video. Resolution relies primarily on credible media reporting rather than a single definitive official record, with backup rules for statements from the principals or their spokespersons. A participant should note the strict confirmation requirement: if an interaction occurs within the timeframe but its date and time cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the deadline, the market defaults to No regardless of later confirmations. Additionally, self-reported statements only qualify if left uncontradicted for three days.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

60%

chance

▼ −2 pts · 24h

Yes60¢
No40¢
Emmanuel Macron · Yes · 1MO 56.0 H 77.5 L 51.5 C 60.0+4.0 (+7.1%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +20 pts24h · detected 7 Nov 2026, 12:10 UTC

The market rose from 57% to 77% amid low liquidity, featuring a wide 20% spread and zero depth within 5 cents, making thin order-book conditions the likely driver of the move.

  • Largest hourly change: 11:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 23 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Elon Musk (down), Volodymyr Zelenskyy (down).

The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 8 Nov 2026, 03:50 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe. If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

Market explained

This market measures whether Donald Trump has a confirmed verbal interaction with Emmanuel Macron between market creation and November 30, 2026.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Emmanuel Macron speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Speaking includes any verbal interaction in person, by phone, or by video call. The market resolves to No if no qualifying verbal interaction occurs or if the date and time of a talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on December 3, 2026, regardless of later confirmation. Resolution is decided by credible media reporting, or alternatively by official statements from either individual or their representatives if unambiguous and not contradicted within three calendar days. Resolution occurs at the earlier of confirmation or 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following the deadline.

Resolution source

Credible media reporting, with statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives considered in the absence of definitive reporting or in the case of contradictory reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·