Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$10.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market establishes a clear and standard resolution process for an election outcome. It defines the event precisely as the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial race and specifies that resolution occurs as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three outlets do not agree on a call, the market explicitly falls back to official state election certification. There is also an extended backstop date of July 31, 2027, resolving to an alternate outcome if results remain unconfirmed, leaving minimal room for decider latitude or interpretive conflict.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bill Walker will win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Bill Walker wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — The scheduled date for the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election.
- Confirmation deadline: — The market resolves to Other if results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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