Will Lesil McGuire win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$6.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has straightforward resolution rules tied to the winner of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. It specifies clear, objective sources, resolving as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, with a fallback to official state certification if the networks diverge. There is also a generous fallback deadline of July 31, 2027, resolving to Other if results remain unconfirmed, leaving minimal room for ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lesil McGuire will win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lesil McGuire wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date of the Alaska gubernatorial election
- Confirmation deadline: — Deadline after which the market resolves to Other if results are unconfirmed
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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