Will Bruce Walden win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$13.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves according to the winner of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election based on clear criteria. It specifies three named major media sources (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) and resolves once all three make the same call. If there is no unified call, the fallback is official state certification. There is a generous backstop deadline of July 31, 2027, resolving to 'Other' if results remain unconfirmed by then, which leaves little room for source discretion or interpretive surprise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bruce Walden wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Bruce Walden wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, resolution will be based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the scheduled 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election.
- Confirmation deadline: — Deadline for confirmed election results before resolving to Other.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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