Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Current price
78.65¢
+1.9¢ · 24h
Implied probability 78.65%
$146K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolution, requiring a unanimous call from three designated news outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) or, alternatively, official election certification. A generous longstop date of July 31, 2027 provides sufficient time for ranked-choice tabulation and legal certification in Alaska, resolving to Other only if the outcome remains unconfirmed past that date.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Date the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is currently scheduled to take place.
- Confirmation deadline: — If election results are not confirmed by this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, and official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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