Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$342.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify the outcome condition based on who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. Resolution occurs as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, with official state certification serving as the explicit fallback if they do not reach a consensus. A generous longstop date of July 31, 2027 resolves the market to Other if confirmation is delayed, which leaves minimal room for ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mary Peltola will win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mary Peltola wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election.
- Confirmation deadline: — Deadline after which unconfirmed results cause the market to resolve to Other.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with official certification as fallback)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.