Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$174.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolution based on the outcome of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. Early resolution occurs if the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all project the same winner; otherwise, resolution defaults directly to official election certification. A long-stop date of July 31, 2027, is provided in the event that results remain unconfirmed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tom Begich will win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Tom Begich wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the race. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The scheduled date of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election.
- Confirmation deadline: — Deadline for election results to be confirmed before the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, and official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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