Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$28.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined, relying on consensus among three major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) or, alternatively, the official certification of election results. A generous fallback date of July 31, 2027, resolves the market to 'Other' if no confirmed winner emerges, leaving very little room for ambiguity or unexpected decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lisa Murkowski will win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. It features a specific multi-network consensus requirement for early resolution and a fallback resolution to "Other" if results remain unconfirmed by July 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lisa Murkowski wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to "Other" if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate, resolution will be based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — Scheduled date for the Alaska gubernatorial election
- Confirmation deadline: — Deadline after which the market resolves to "Other" if results are unconfirmed
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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