Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Current price
21.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 21.5%
$235.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define the target election and its outcome criteria. Resolution triggers early if the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, and otherwise defaults to official state certification. A long backstop date of July 31, 2027, allows ample time for tabulation and certification, resolving to Other only if results remain unconfirmed by that time.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bernadette Wilson will win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Bernadette Wilson wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, resolution is determined by official certification.
Key dates
- Election date: — The 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is scheduled for this date.
- Confirmation deadline: — The market resolves to Other if results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if the three sources do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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