Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$59.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly defined and rely on specific, objective sources. The market resolves early if the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, and falls back to official election certification if they do not reach unanimous consensus. The deadline of July 31, 2027, provides several months of buffer beyond election day, accommodating Alaska's ranked-choice tabulation and any potential certification delays or legal challenges without risking premature expiration.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Treg Taylor will win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Treg Taylor wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is scheduled for this date.
- Confirmation deadline: — If election results are not confirmed by this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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