Will Matt Heilala win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$43.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution rules clearly outline the conditions for resolving the market. Resolution requires all three specified major news organizations (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) to call the race for the same candidate, with a fallback to official state certification if a three-way media consensus is not reached. A generous long-stop date of July 31, 2027 prevents indefinite delays and provides sufficient time for Alaska's ranked-choice tabulation and official certification.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Matt Heilala will win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. It includes a specific resolution condition requiring consensus among three designated media sources before resorting to official certification, as well as a longstop resolution date.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Matt Heilala wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. The race outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is currently scheduled to take place.
- Confirmation deadline: — Market resolves to Other if election results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.