Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$132.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the winner of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. A clear hierarchy is provided for the resolution sources: the market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, and it falls back to official certification if a consensus among the three news organizations is not reached. There is also an explicit longstop date of July 31, 2027, resolving to Other if results remain unconfirmed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Nancy Dahlstrom will win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Nancy Dahlstrom wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election.
- Confirmation deadline: — Market resolves to Other if election results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.