Will David Leslie win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$2.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how the winner of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election is determined. Resolution is tied to a specific consensus trigger among three major media networks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—requiring all three to call the race for the same candidate. If a unanimous media call does not occur, resolution clearly falls back to official state election certification. The rules also specify that run-offs are covered and provide a long backstop deadline of July 31, 2027, resolving to 'Other' if no outcome is confirmed by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether David Leslie will win the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of run-offs, resolving to Other if results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if David Leslie wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If these three sources do not all call the race for the same candidate, resolution is decided based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — The scheduled date for the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election.
- Confirmation deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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