Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
Volume not captured · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on the outcome of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate race. It specifies explicit media projection sources (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) requiring consensus among all three, with a straightforward fallback to official state certification if unanimous calls are not made. A longstop deadline of July 31, 2027 resolves the market to 'Other' if results remain unconfirmed, leaving minimal room for ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate race. It includes any potential run-offs and features a fallback resolution to "Other" if results are unconfirmed by July 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on the winner, resolution is determined by official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — Scheduled date for the midterm election
- Confirmation deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are unconfirmed by this date
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if consensus is not reached)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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