Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$24.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and objective criteria for determining the winner of the 2026 Alaska Senate election. Resolution relies on a unanimous call across three specified news organizations (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a definitive fallback to official state certification if the networks disagree. There is an ample timeout date of July 31, 2027, resolving to Other if the outcome remains unconfirmed, which gives sufficient buffer for Alaska's ranked-choice voting tabulation, legal challenges, or potential recounts without introducing rule ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Richard Grayson will win the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of run-offs, resolving to Other if results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Richard Grayson wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the scheduled 2026 midterm election.
- Confirmation Deadline: — Deadline for election results confirmation before resolving to Other.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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