Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$24.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the outcome around the winner of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, including any potential run-offs. Resolution relies on a unanimous call across three specified media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—or, failing that, the state's official election certification. A generous longstop date of July 31, 2027 handles protracted delays or litigation by resolving to Other. There are no unusual edge cases or discretionary ambiguities.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dustin Darden will win the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dustin Darden wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — Midterm election currently scheduled for this date.
- Confirmation deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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