Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Current price
73.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 73.5%
$839.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolution based on the outcome of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election. Resolution occurs as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all project the same winner, with a definitive fallback to official state certification if the networks do not reach unanimous agreement. A generous backstop date of July 31, 2027 accounts for potential tabulation delays or legal challenges, resolving to an alternative outcome only if certification fails by that deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mary Peltola wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate midterm election, inclusive of any run-offs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mary Peltola wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, resolution is determined by official certification.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Scheduled date for the 2026 midterm election.
- Resolution cutoff date: — The market resolves to Other if results are not confirmed by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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