Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$37.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has clear and objective resolution criteria. It designates three major media networks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—and requires all three to project the same winner for early resolution. If a consensus is not reached among those outlets, it relies on official election certification. A generous longstop date of July 31, 2027 provides sufficient time for ranked-choice tabulation, recounts, runoffs, or legal challenges without risking an accidental premature expiry.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ann Diener will win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska. It includes any potential run-offs and resolves to Other if results remain unconfirmed by July 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Ann Diener wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the scheduled election.
- Confirmation deadline: — Deadline for results to be confirmed before resolving to Other.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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