Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Current price
25.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 25.5%
$517.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined, relying on a unanimous consensus call across three major news networks or falling back to official state election certification if they do not agree. Potential runoffs are explicitly accounted for, and a generous deadline of July 31, 2027, prevents premature resolution while providing a clear fallback to Other if results remain unconfirmed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dan Sullivan will win the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. Resolution requires consensus among three major media outlets or official certification, with a specific longstop date for resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate race. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official state certification.
Key dates
- Election date: — Date of the midterm election
- Confirmation deadline: — Deadline for election results to be confirmed before resolving to Other
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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