Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
Current price
92.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 92.5%
$22.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines what constitutes a win and how party representation is determined, explicitly noting that independent candidates do not count for party options even if affiliated. It accounts for potential runoffs and specifies a clear resolution mechanism requiring consensus across three named major outlets (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with official state election certification acting as an objective fallback if the media consensus is not reached.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee will win the 2026 Louisiana U.S. Senate race. Independent candidates do not count as Republicans even if they have an affiliation with the party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. If a named candidate is replaced prior to election day, the replacement nominee counts. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not qualify as Republicans regardless of party affiliation. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, resolution relies on official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if all three do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.