Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
Current price
7.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.5%
$27.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines how the winning party is determined, specifying that candidates must be the official party nominee and that independent candidates are excluded even if informally aligned with a party. It accounts for potential runoffs and allows for candidate replacements before election day. Resolution relies on an objective trigger: unanimous race calls from three designated major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a definitive fallback to official state election certification if the networks do not all agree.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Louisiana, including any run-offs. Independent candidates are excluded from party options even if affiliated with a party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 Louisiana U.S. Senate race. The market resolves No if the Democratic nominee does not win. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Democratic option regardless of party affiliation. If a party nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee represents the party. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, resolution relies on the state's official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — Refers to the 2026 midterm election cycle, inclusive of any run-offs.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if the three sources do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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