Will the Democrats win Virginia in the 2028 Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market follows standard and unambiguous election mechanics for statewide popular vote outcomes.
Read the full assessment
This market follows standard and unambiguous election mechanics for statewide popular vote outcomes. It specifies that resolution occurs as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call Virginia for the same candidate, with a clear fallback to official certified state results if the outlets fail to reach consensus or make calls. Party representation rules are clearly articulated, including explicit procedures for nominee replacements prior to election day and an extended long-stop deadline of December 31, 2029, in the event of unresolved disputes.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
85%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Virginia in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Virginia results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in Virginia in the 2028 Presidential Election. It resolves based on popular vote totals regardless of subsequent Electoral College distribution.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in Virginia in the 2028 Presidential Election. It resolves to No if a candidate representing another party or an independent candidate wins the most valid statewide votes. It resolves to Other if the statewide results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. Resolution occurs once all active listed news organizations concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If consensus is not reached, resolution relies on the certified election results reported by the state government.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or certified results from the state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·