Will the Republicans win Texas in the 2028 Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market clearly defines winning Texas as receiving the most valid statewide votes in the 2028 presidential election.
Read the full assessment
This market clearly defines winning Texas as receiving the most valid statewide votes in the 2028 presidential election. Resolution triggers early if the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all concurrently call the race for the same candidate. If those specified major media outlets do not reach consensus or fail to make calls, the fallback source is explicitly defined as the official certified election results from the Texas state government. Clear handling is provided for nominee replacements, third-party affiliations, and a final timeout date of December 31, 2029, leaving minimal room for decider discretion or ambiguity.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
64%
chance▲ +2.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Texas in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Texas results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party's candidate wins the most valid statewide votes in Texas during the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the nominee representing the Republican Party wins the most valid statewide votes in Texas in the 2028 Presidential Election, regardless of how electoral college votes are distributed. The market resolves to No if a candidate representing another party or an independent candidate wins the most statewide votes. The market resolves to Other if the statewide results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If these sources do not reach consensus or fail to make statewide calls, the market resolves based on the certified statewide results reported by the state government.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or certified results from the state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·