Will the Republicans win Arizona in the 2028 Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how the winner is determined based on the highest statewide popular vote for the Republican nominee.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how the winner is determined based on the highest statewide popular vote for the Republican nominee. Resolution relies on a strict consensus call across three specific major news networks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—or, failing a unanimous call, the official certified election results from the Arizona state government. There is a clear fallback date of December 31, 2029, resolving to 'Other' if a definitive result cannot be established, leaving very little room for ambiguity or unexpected outcomes.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
34%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Arizona in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Arizona results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in Arizona during the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in Arizona in the 2028 Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another party's candidate or an independent candidate wins the most statewide votes. The market resolves to Other if the statewide results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If a listed news organization does not make statewide race calls, it is struck from the list. If the news organizations fail to reach consensus, resolution will rely on the certified election results reported by the state government.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or the certified statewide results reported by the state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·