Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
Current price
90.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 90.5%
$143.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market establishes clear resolution criteria tied directly to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election. Resolution occurs as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, with official state certification serving as a definitive backup if the media outlets diverge. Rules clearly define party affiliation by official nomination, explicitly address potential ballot replacements prior to election day, and exclude independent candidates from major-party categories even if affiliated.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election, inclusive of run-offs. Candidates running as independents do not qualify as Republicans regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official nominee of the Republican Party wins the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election. Independent candidates do not count toward the Republican outcome even if they have party affiliations. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. The market resolves to No if a candidate representing any other party or an independent wins. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on the winner, resolution is determined by the official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the Florida U.S. Senate special election
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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